Egg prices are a broken barometer

May 26

A sudden drop from record-high prices doesn’t tell even half the story

By Forrest J.H.

Grocery prices have held steady for the past month, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at the cost of eggs.

A dozen grade A’s fell from their shocking record high of $6.23 in March to $5.12 in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The drop may come as a relief, but eggs are still anomalously high, more expensive than a whole chicken or a gallon of milk – a benchmark eggs surpassed for the first time on modern record earlier this year.

The sudden drop was significant enough to sway Oven Light Journal’s staple food index nearly two percentage points. Calculating without considering the cost of eggs, staple food prices actually increased a tiny bit between March and April of 2025.

Tomato and orange prices have fallen along seasonal expectations (high prices in winter, low prices in summer), but it is about this time each year they typically start turning up again. At $1.79 per pound in April, tomatoes hit a four-year low. At $1.46 per pound in April, oranges were at their lowest in 11 months. However, oranges set a record price at $1.81 per pound in October of 2024 and have followed a general increase year over year since 2020, hinting at another possible record high later in the fall of 2025.

Meats, breads, flour, rice and bananas have been largely stable.

So, what’s the deal with egg prices?

Eggs are still wildly expensive at 49.3 percent above where they were last year. Bird flu has been the biggest factor pushing prices up, according to egg producers. The recent outbreak of avian influenza has affected an estimated 100 million chickens, most of them egg layers. It is impossible to predict the course of the bird flu, but there are some positive signs.

There were 59 confirmed outbreaks among commercial flocks in February, 12 in March and just three in April, according to the USDA. However, the migration of wild birds will likely affect outbreaks in the future.

A decrease in demand and increase in imports could also explain the price drop, some experts believe.

Imports of egg products increased nearly 80 percent in the first three months of 2025, says Kevin Bergquist, a Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, in a Yahoo Finance article. That may not have had a direct effect on egg prices, Bergquist says, but it could have meant some “pricing pressure relief to the overall egg market.”

Also, the very fact that eggs are expensive has led to fewer shoppers buying them and coincidentally lower prices, Bergquist says.

Consumer demand for eggs also tends to dip after experiencing heights around Easter, says David L. Ortega, a Michigan State University food economics professor, in an Associated Press article.

While most other food categories have found some price stability this year, eggs stand out. And considering such a large jump in egg product imports earlier this year, as well as an increasingly hostile American trade atmosphere, the egg supply chain is ripe for another shocking turn at any moment.

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This article’s ingredients

H5N1 Bird Flu: How It Will Affect Egg Supply Chain in 2025

Eggs Unlimited

March 5, 2025

https://www.eggsunlimited.com/the-devastating-impact-of-h5n1-bird-flu-on-the-egg-supply-chain-in-2025/

Bureau of Labor Statistics data finder

Consumer Price Index – Average Price Data

https://beta.bls.gov/dataQuery/find?st=0&r=20&s=popularity%3AD&fq=survey:[ap]&more=0

Confirmations of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial and Backyard Flocks

US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

May 19, 2025