Cost of protein ‘problematic for the consumer’

Global conflict, fly larvae, anxious consumers loom over summer food prices.

By Forrest J.H.

Stability may be an illusion and there are some troubling indicators on the horizon.

Overall, staple food prices dipped 1.5 percent between April and May of 2025, according to Oven Light Journal’s index, with the drop in egg prices leading the way. But stable month-to-month numbers obscure a fuller view of complicated international relations, concerns about disease-carrying flies among cattle, and broader trends leading to record high prices.

Egg prices plummeted, but were still far above what they were not long ago. Eggs were down a massive 11.2 percent between April and May, landing them at $4.55 for a dozen Grade A’s, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That is still about twice what they were this time last year. Eggs hit their record price three months ago, as the spread of bird flu led to mass culling of egg-laying populations.

Beef was down in May from its year-high price point in April, but is on a long-term upward trend. Beef is about 40 cents per pound more expensive than at the same time last year.

On top of that, American officials are weighing how to respond to a recent northward spread of the New World Screwworm among cattle in southern Mexico. The Screwworm is a fly larvae that burrows into the skin of living animals, often cattle, and can inflict deadly illnesses, according to the US Department of Agriculture. It is endemic to many Carribbean, South American and Central American countries. The US eradicated the Screwworm in 1966 and has since kept up efforts to limit its spread.

*Cochliomyia hominivorax (New World Screwworm fly)*

*Source:* *USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service*

In May, the USDA suspended the import of live animals from Mexico after confirmed cases of Screwworm around Oaxaca and Veracruz. Then on June 30, the USDA announced a plan to slowly reopen ports in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas between July and September while keeping a close watch on any potential Screwworm cases.

Food price data has yet to catch up with the effects of Screwworm, but less-than-friendly international relations have already rocked American beef markets.

“U.S. beef imports in March [of 2025] were the third highest monthly import on record,” according to the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook published in May. “This surge was likely motivated by trade uncertainty preceding the tariff announcements in April.”

A combination of these and other factors have led the USDA to predict cattle prices reaching even beyond their 2025 records.

Considering the most recent food price data, Wells Fargo economist Michael Swanson told Yahoo Finance that proteins are the category to watch, as the price of meats, fish and eggs have become “problematic for the consumer.”

However, it is also worth noting rice and bananas both saw jumps in price, with bananas hitting a new record high at 66 cents per pound. Rice was at $1.07 per pound, just two cents below the record high set last summer. Rice and bananas are both particularly cheap and typically very stable in price, but they are also largely imported to the US, and thus vulnerable to volatile international relations.

Milk dropped modestly to $3.90 per gallon, and tomatoes dipped to $1.71 per pound following seasonal trends. Bread is at its lowest all year, falling nearly four percent in a month to $2.39 per loaf. A loaf of white is about 10 cents cheaper than this time last year, a loaf of wheat about 15 cents cheaper.

In a CNBC article, Goldman Sachs CIO Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo says stable prices in this moment may be something of an illusion.

“Tariffs aren’t having a large immediate impact because companies have been using existing inventories or slowly adjusting prices due to uncertain demand,” Wilson-Elizondo said.

Wells Fargo economist Swanson echoed that from the consumer’s perspective.

“[Grocery shoppers] stocked up extra hard in February and March,” and stores have since seen “softer demand,” Swanson told Yahoo Finance.

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This article’s ingredients

Bureau of Labor Statistics data finder

Consumer Price Index – Average Price Data

https://beta.bls.gov/dataQuery/find?st=0&r=20&s=popularity%3AD&fq=survey:[ap]&more=0

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Index Summary

June 11, 2025.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service