Beef prices hit on all flanks

Aug 21

Cattle costs foreshadow broader food supply problems with ‘no quick fix.’

By Forrest J.H.

The overall cost of groceries appears stable at first glance, but a closer look tells a very different story.

The price of a grocery bill increased a mere 0.26 percent between June and July of 2025, according to the Oven Light Journal’s measure of the latest available data. But that says nothing of a drastic drop in egg prices alongside steep increases in milk and beef prices. Even the items showing stability right now, many observers say, are likely to experience disruptions at the hands of international political strife, climate change, and abuse of agricultural and food service workers.

“The cost of living is still issue number one,” NBC senior business correspondent Christine Romans said on the August 15 TODAY show, “and there are still some significant pressures in terms of the prices we’re paying every day for everyday items.”

The cost of groceries has increased 2.2 percent over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index Report published in August. That is roughly in line with the rate of inflation and within many observers’ expectations. However, eyes are on President Donald Trump and his administration as they continuously threaten, impose and roll back massive tariffs on all sorts of things from all sorts of countries, leaving consumers to pay for the consequences.

Bananas, a largely imported food, hit their all-time high of 66 cents per pound in July, up from 61 cents per pound the previous year.

"Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen," said Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in a July 30 press conference.

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s chief economic strategist, echoed that after seeing August’s Consumer Price Index.

“Longer term, we likely haven’t seen the end of rising prices as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy,” Zentner said in a CNBC article.

A kaleidoscope of problems have driven up beef prices, with recent sharp increases bringing it up to an average of $8.60 per pound, according to the Oven Light Journal’s measurements. That is an all-time record high, and each cut of beef is following the same upward trend.

Over the past five years, droughts in major beef-producing areas, feed price inflation, and rising interest rates have made cattle farming more costly, said Oklahoma State University agribusiness professor Derrell Peel in a Newsweek article. Producers have been consistently trimming their herds since 2020.

Sylvain Charlebois, a professor of food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University, says it is a stubborn trend.

“There's no quick fix. It takes years to rebuild herds, and ranchers won't start expanding until they're confident feed prices and weather patterns stabilize,” Charlebois told Newsweek. “If we get a couple of good grazing years and feed costs come down, you could see prices plateau late next year or into 2027.”

While American beef becomes less abundant, beef from other countries grows more expensive with tariffs. About 15 percent of American beef imports this year have come from Brazil, which is now saddled with a 50 percent tariff on all goods, according to Newsweek reporter Hugh Cameron.

The price of milk forebodingly increased alongside beef an identical 2.67 percent between June and July. Interestingly, whole milk has led that trend, reaching a year-long high of $4.16 per gallon, while low-fat and reduced fat have even seen slight dips in price recently, landing at $3.66 per gallon.

The Trump Administration’s actions against immigrants and other imagined enemies are also certain to affect food prices through disruption of the labor supply, from farms, to grocery stores, to restaurants.

While the White House excitedly reports record numbers of arrests, it does not have as much to say about what happens after all those people go missing. Phil Kafarakis, president of the industry group IMFA The Food Away From Home Association, says the effects will become evident soon.

“You are now going to be left with not enough laborers in the fields to pick up and collect product as its coming to harvest,” Kafarakis said in an NBC News article.

And while the authorities vanish those people, American workers are not filling in the gap, says Stuart Anderson, executive director of the research group National Foundation for American Policy.

“The reason why you see slowdowns is because when employers can’t find enough workers, they are going to invest less,” Anderson told NBC News.

Eggs have fallen to $3.60 per dozen, their lowest price since October of 2024. Their plummeting prices from the heights of bird flu earlier this year continue to sway broader measurements of grocery costs. A dozen Grade A’s is still 52 cents more expensive today than the same time last year.

Chicken dipped in price between June and July to an average $2.69 per pound, but has trended slightly up from $2.57 the previous year. Boneless chicken breasts have notably increased in price by 25 cents per pound over the year, landing at $4.20 in July.

Bread, flour and rice have been broadly stable over the year and their July prices were all withing two cents of their June prices. The average loaf of bread was $2.28 in July, while flour landed at 66 cents per pound and rice at $1.07 per pound.

As of this writing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not provided an average price for oranges for July of 2025.

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This article’s ingredients

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Index summary

August 12, 2025

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Business Insider

Inflation held steady in July, defying expectations for hotter price growth as tariffs come into effect

By Madison Hoff

August 12, 2025

https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-july-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2025-8